XLY · Consumer Discretionary

What it is. The Industry Matrix applies the exact same technical scoring as the sector orbs, one level down: to GICS industry baskets built from S&P 500 members, and to each constituent stock individually.

• Money Flow Index, 14 days (MFI) — 0–100 oscillator over typical price × volume. Above 50 = net buying pressure, below 50 = net selling pressure.
• Relative strength vs the S&P 500, 20 days — the basket's (or stock's) 20-session return minus SPY's over the same window.
• Volume pressure, 20-day z-score — today's volume vs its own 20-day average in standard deviations.

Industry baskets. Each industry's price series is the equal-weight average of its members' closes; volume is the members' summed volume. Formulas and thresholds are identical to the sector level.

Signals. Green = accumulation(MFI ≥ 60 and positive relative strength);red = distribution (MFI ≤ 40 and negative). A badge fires when price also confirms: BUY = distribution + close below the lower 1σ Bollinger Band; CONT = accumulation + close above the upper 1σ band. No confirmation, no badge — same rule as the front page.

Win-rate columns. Each row shows how often that signal has historically been followed by a rise over 20 trading days, computed on ~28 years of daily data with no look-ahead (consecutive signal days count once; exit at close of day t+20). Format: win% ± margin of error (n = number of trades). These are context, not proof — read them together with n.

The statistical bar. Two thresholds govern what "established" means here, both fixed in advance on ~28 years of daily data and requiring win rate above 55% at 20 days:

• Sector-level publication gate (n > 500). What a signal must clear before it's presented as proven on the front page. Sector BUY (n=2,403) and CONTINUATION (n=3,501) pass it; read how the bar works.
• Sub-sector display gate (n > 300). Industries and single stocks trade fewer signals than 11 broad ETFs, so their buckets are smaller. At n=300 the margin of error at a 55–65% win rate is about ±2.9pp at 95% confidence — still tight enough to be informative. 94 of 127 industry buckets and 343 constituent stocks currently clear it.

Badges always show today's live signal regardless of sample size — the win-rate columns carry the evidence next to them. Buckets below the bar are research-grade context, not proven edges. Full tables in the back-test report.

Membership. Industries follow the GICS sub-industry of each company in today's S&P 500 — e.g. Apple sits in Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals, not Semiconductors. Index changes quarterly; the mapping refreshes from the public constituents list.

Data source. Daily OHLCV from Yahoo Finance (adjusted for splits/dividends), recomputed after every US market close — no look-ahead, no smoothing. Charts cover the last 30 sessions.

Honest labels. Technical rotation signals from price and volume — not dollar flows, not investment advice. See the disclaimer.